Title: Forecasting the Recovery: A Capstone Analysis of US Housing Data (2005-2013): Business Statistics and Analysis Capstone Project
Introduction: From Data to Dollars For my Business Statistics and Analysis Capstone, I tackled the complex dynamics of the US housing market using HUD's THADS data (2005–2013). The goal wasn't just to report what happened, but to build a robust model capable of forecasting future market values. This project showcases the power of statistical rigor in transforming messy, skewed real-world data into actionable predictive insights. Key Analysis Highlights Measuring the Crisis Impact on Rent: I used paired t-tests (2007 vs. 2009) on Fair Market Rent (FMR) and found that the 2008 Subprime Crisis did not decrease rents; instead, the crisis accelerated the rise in mean FMR , as foreclosures moved people into the rental market. This finding directly challenges assumptions about market deflation. Modeling Market Value Drivers: I developed a Multiple Linear Regression model for single-family home values, employing log transformations ( LN(VALUE) , LN(FMR) , LN(UTILITY ) to correct f...